Friday, June 26, 2009

H1N1 (aka American flu) - 1 million in the US alone?

So here's a new slant on the H1N1. Dr. Anne Schuchat of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been quoted as saying: "We are estimating about a million people in the U.S. or more have gotten this virus... ,"

The laboratory confirmed positives are only 27,717, meaning the pick up rate is only 2.7%. I wonder what this means with regards to the alarmist estimates of fatality rates around 0.37% that we have been fed with? With an estimated denominator of ~1 million, the death rates would actually only be ~1/10,000, i.e. 0.01% in the US - far less than the fatality rates of previous pandemics and even seasonal flu.

I think health officials need to be a bit more realistic in their communications, and help us understand this better.

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