The early breakdowns are usually due to the operator being relatively naive. The later breakdowns are due to the expected wear and tear when the machine nears the end of its lifecycle.
By referring to the bathtub effect, Minister Lui is essentially telling us that the SMRT had synced the train systems so well that the old system was failing at the same time as the new ones were. The sides of the two bathtubs were in perfect alignment. Well done, guys! You were precise about this, at least.
There is actually another interpretation of the bathtub effect. This is a metaphor used more by environmental scientists. Essentially here, the bathtub represents that container where the water level is determined by the rate of water flowing in and the rate of water draining from it.
The ENV people know this very well as this is the cause of the frequent 'ponding' observed in recent times, during heavy rainfall.
This is actually a more important interpretation of the bathtub effect, because it explains so many of the problems we see in Singapore nowadays. So much of the Singaporean angst, whether it is about housing, transport, healthcare or education is really about the water level in the bathtub. The capacity of these systems are woefully inadequate compared to the demand. So the water overflows from the bathtub.
One can't help wondering why this is so. Considering the 'excellence' of our civil service and that the government has had uninterrupted power for such a long time, it seems a critical neglect that they have gotten the models all so screwed up. Why they did not anticipate the rate of population growth and did not build enough capacity to cater for this growth, I simply cannot understand. Was it because all these scholars were so blind that they did not see the threat of overflow? Or was it that they were all only concerned about short term KPIs? Let the bathtub overflow on someone else's watch!
So much for a government that claims credit for long term planning. So, thank you Minister Lui for sharing with us this important metaphor. Now we understand why the bathwater is ponding all over the living room floor.
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8 comments:
The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing...or don't care. All blighted by the KPIs and fat bonus.
I think we can just look at who fills up the top positions in civil service. A good number are probably scholars and people who have never worked or been exposed and sharpened by the rough and tumble of private sector life where a company's survival and growth depends on how nimble the management are in steering the company's direction? Private sector CEOs are paid well, but deservedly so because if they fail to deliver, out they go - no 2nd chance!
Rational discourse but is it true?
Like religion we can use metaphors to justify everything.
Do care - just show me the money!!!!
Well some of us may even think that Lui Tuck Yew was unlucky to inherit the transport problems. If he is smart, he should as soon as possible get to the bottom of all the train breakdown causes, publicise them as openly as possible including details such as "had certain things been done in say 2006, this would not have happened." If he is cagey about how the problems came about and worse still he fails to make them go away, he will, whether he like it or not, have to bear the responsibility comes 2016. So if I were him, I will be as open as possible about the causes even if this meant finger pointing of previous transport and other ministers (eg finance minister in previous government if he had disapproved of previous requests for funding). Unless he wants to do the can for others....
Not sure if he intended it or not, but the COI is achieving that purpose isn't it. The worms are all crawling out of the woodwork, and it is becoming clear that the rot goes quite a far ways back.hat monster under the bed is quite big, and if Minister Lui is worth his salary, he ought to slay it with some pretty bold strokes while he has the chance.
If we Singapore voters leave it to these Pay And Profit (PAP) types, they will call the Fire Brigade when the water from our bath tubs is ponding in our living rooms.
Nah, the Fire Brigade is still gahment. The problem will be outsourced to the private sector so that highly salaried Ministers' hands remain clean.
It's quite amusing to see how the Bathtub effect actually appears like a bathtub in the graph as it explains to quick decline of problems during the early years and the spikes of errors during the latter years.
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